The government has done the right thing and done what it needed to do, what it should do and what the government is there to do for the Landlords.
So I can actually say everything is okay, really Everything is OKAY!
For more investor and landlord updates check out www.gladfish.com/covid19/
Hey guys so welcoming and basically yeah I will firstly I guess apologize for my last stuff that didn’t go out so we totally missed that one had it all set up in any way. It didn’t want to send by that email address that I sent away but anyway doesn’t matter we fix it up now.
So you should all get this and worked out was wrong so what I want to update you and the headline I put was you know everything’s okay really because actually what could have happened and what actually has happened are two totally different things and I think actually looking at it right now what we’re finding amazingly is that things are nowhere near where they seem the government’s done a really good job you know they’ve done a really good job at getting to where we are.
Now I’m not talking about the virus side or the human tragedy side I think that well that’s a whole nother story I’m talking about the economics and I’m talking about how it affects property investors I think they have done a quite a good job there. So for me that’s really you know that’s good news and really in some ways from an economic perspective what we have done is best in the world you know there are a few other countries that have done various other things and have done I think just as good but given the large scale economy that we’re part of and given where we were coming from a number of things like that actually you know what, it’s been surprisingly positive.
Now that doesn’t mean that you know individuals aren’t affected because I can tell you right now you know I’ve got two properties that are directly affected I’ve got one who was already in arrears and continues to be in arrears so I’ve got three properties in my portfolio that are affected okay.
One of those the and it may well be that the tenant was just being a prick but the tenant basically said either you drop the rent of all these periods on or else I’m handing my notice in and of course my answer was noticing and he did and I accepted that so everything’s okay.
When we first head into this I did a 30% scenario did a 50% scenario 80% scenario of our fees dropping yeah the reality is and then obviously if our fees drop that means your fees are dropped the reality is we’re probably about 5% now. You know that’s a start isn’t 5% is almost you know I might say is negligible because if you have lost your rent or you’re in that situation where you English rent it’s terrible but as a 1,250 Plus properties you know approaching the 1,300 other properties you know that it’s a negligible amount because we normally have around about 3% anyway that it’s just natural and inherent of people being in arrears of paying late and things like this you know.
That’s not too bad, okay you know I know a couple of large landlords like myself have got multiple properties that are affected you know and that is but hopefully, that’s where the payment holiday and if you haven’t involved yourself of it. I still recommend I know there’s lots of publicity about you know one of the lenders come out and said if you take it you know don’t expect to get mortgages and all this stuff and it will go against credit actually no one says it’s going to go against your credit rating.
What they’ve said is if you avail yourself of it you won’t be able to do lending while you’re receiving that and you need at least one monthly payment which is in their standard terms anyway, so you know for me it is you know it makes a big difference because every month I’ve got X amount that I’m not paying and that money is staying in my account.
What turned out to be lots and lots of tenants you know wanting rent decreases and we’ve had you know there are some arrogant tenants that had just like to screw you they’re getting a holiday I won’t decrease in rent I’m not paying my rent. And you know one of the guys said to us he’s a really good solicitor what he doesn’t realize is that actually is if he doesn’t watch himself as a solicitor if he gets bad credit that can also affect his ability to practice his craft so you know anyway, he is clearly thinking more of himself than he is maybe we’ll see.
Look the great thing is if you go to we’ve got a page on the website and I’ll just grab that up so you can actually see that but effectively with this www.tenants.ezytrac.co.uk/defer preferably don’t fill out the form if you know as a landlord but you can see that there we’ve been using this it’s framed really really well and actually working really really well because people have been sending to it have been coming back to us a few days later actually saying they’ve sorted out Universal credits they’ve done this they’ve done that and actually that’s why the number is so low I’ve been speaking to a lot of people in the industry and they’ve been hit a lot harder than we have and I think it’s because they’ve kind of taken me the approach that will just pay the rent or else you know where as we’re trying to work together you know get some give-and-take but for the most part what we’ve been doing is saying there’s government schemes there use them you know and show us that you’ve used them and then we can go to the landlord say hey this is the situation you know and for the most part a lot of those that 5% that I talked about is actually self-employed people who come June as in next month they get their universal credit payment and then they can backdate the payments so you know all in all touchwood things are pretty damn good so far.
Now let’s talk I think you know for me one of the things I’ve always said is the employment rate the unemployment rate is the biggest concern that we have to watch out for I mean we can talk GDP and we can talk all these sorts of things but as long as we keep that unemployment rate low and we keep people in employed that’s great so the furloughs scheme you know the furlough skin which is 80% of your income for three months due to end in June that’s still going so that’s a great scheme now what they’re talking about and they’ll come out probably in the next few days possibly even today. They’re there they’re looking to announce a 60 percent model we’re in July you’ll drop to a sixty percent but you can work okay as part of it I’m not sure if this restriction is a work that hasn’t come out yet this is all you know leaks and that I mean the UK government is a leaky bucket I can tell you that. I don’t know how they have to intelligence agencies mi5 and mi6 because I tell you they need an intelligence agency someone applying for holes in the bucket but anyway maybe they’re releasing this information because they want to see what people think about it but it’s a 60% from June woods yeah which is great news because that allows a business owner to sit there and go I’ve got to build my business back up to where it was so great news from that perspective.
Look first of July expect a and a big one all right you know GDP has dropped its dropped incredibly everything has you know been pressed on pause but the Bank of them has come back and basically said that you know drops that little drop very quickly and then head back up they expect unemployment to be nine percent which is very high you know but it will recover throughout 2021. It’s gonna drop and come back most people have been saying this and I’ve been saying it for a while too you know I think this is what will happen I think as long as we keep people employed I think watch out for the US because the US has gone the other model where they have given billions to the billionaire class and they’ve left their people high and dry and really just you know disgusting display of you know pure I don’t even know it’s not even capitalism its demonism it’s you know it almost is 1984 hunger games as I’ve been saying for a while. And it almost is you know from an I’m not even comparing because there’s no comparison I don’t think people are already saying that this is you know disgusting and it is you know but if you want to see how the worst of humanity operates go and have a look over in the US and the politicians over there.
If you want to see what actually the best of so far I think the way the NHS and the way that you know the UK is is core is great especially considering what happened with Brexit you know who’s so device and is so dividing and now we’re being able to come back and look the media’s not supporting and we know that but that’s a reality look yeah so unemployment they expect to go to 9% but remember as with all things that’s the worst-case scenario that’s its you know it’s a fan chart effectively they look at and you know if we look at the actual you know the things they use.
So GDP dropped dramatically you know from 550s to about what is it blow 400th hours four hundred billion that is you know but to get back up to 550 by the end of twenty-three so it’ll recover quickly in 2021, 2022 and 2023 and by 2023 we’re back in the growth which do you know what I’ve been talking for about a recession for a while I think this is the recession we’re going to have any way we’re just having it for me it was going to come to six months after Trump lost interest in the won the election but then lost interest in the economy. I think it’s being brought forward by coronavirus that’s all.
You know my the other ones unemployment you can see it’s risen and then it drops back down the problem with unemployment why I say wash your unemployment rate and use that as the thing is because unemployment if I make one of my staff unemployed it takes them a while to go find another job interview get into that job do their probation and you know it’s probably three or four months at least a process yeah so that process has to run through it so that takes time and realistically generally that takes at least two years all right so that nine percent is gonna be over two years it doesn’t matter how good or how fantastic programs are that’s probably what’s likely to happen is whatever we end up that if we end up at seven percent nine percent you know more I don’t think it’s gonna be more I think if they get this ferlough right if they get the incentives right they’ve got the bounce back line scheme they’ve got the see bills although both of them I haven’t been able to get either of them yet you know so whether it be from just their sheer weight of you know applications you know it was supposed to be I thought 48 hours but anyway it’s been a week and we’ll see where we go from there anyway but we’ll see.
Certainly, you know avail yourselves of the furlough and be about back Loan Scheme and the C bills as you know in all these sort of aspects that we can to try and make things work you know and basically make sure that we can come out stronger and the plan is for me it’s come back even stronger because that’s the time to be you know coming back when you’ve got this recession this time to take advantage of the opportunities and I think that’s with your employment or your work or whatever.
Anyway so interestingly a lot of people have been saying are but the morning is ending will slow up and with more we just learn this lower property prices will drop actually the banks in the last recession had about core capital this is money they have to keep fractional reserve banking don’t worry about all the details but basically one to two percent very little okay so that will massively exposed now shown to be exposed now they’ve got around fifteen percent so they’re a lot better position and they’re being able to free up some of that capital now so they can lend it so there’s there shouldn’t be too many problems as long as Trust is maintained in the system.
During the last time no bank one would lend to each other if you remember the six months leading up to this banks were starting not to want to win to each other didn’t trust each other because they could see where things were going they could see a recession was coming and so the Fed was propping it up in the US you know so the bottom line is once that trust stays we’ll be okay yeah you’ve already seen that the loan devalues returning back up you know whereas they dropped away and said we’re not lending on any new applications now they’re back 75% again so that’s pretty damn good you know for the most part they withdrew them because they were doing all these payment holidays and things like that you know
So watch out also for automating evaluation desktop valuations and a better data sets for property for valuations it’s that’s good news for us you know for instance the mortgage market review actually has worked out as a good review it made everything tough for us as investors and particularly for portfolio landlords like myself you know to get more lending and more lending but while it’s men is the exposure is a lot less.
Look Brexit had also just subdued prices and I think you know the reality with that is with Brexit subduing prices we’re coming from a lot stronger position you know and look for me my prediction is you know somewhere between zero to ten percent this year prices are likely to drop so if you need to sell this year you know then yeah you’re gonna get that. But I think that will cover relatively quickly especially when you’re going into areas like the webbing going to you know which is your London and major cities you know I think they’re the places we have the best fundamentals that will bounce back the quickest.
So look guys you know you’ve always got my videos if you go www.gladfish.com I’m doing lots of videos I’m not doing the daily videos anymore because I’m so focused on getting this education platform out which it should be launching in the next few weeks which will basically be my full education package of how to everything about property that I know all neatly packaged into twenty different modules teach about lettings and management and everything like that but more on that you know over the coming weeks.
But look guys you know as landlords I think the government’s done the right thing and done what it needed to do what it should do and what the government is there to do and so actually you know everything’s okay I think you know really everything’s okay so you know sit back enjoy get the time with your family but start planning for the recovery too because we are going to be recovering and we’re going to start to loosen up and get things done.
All right guys yeah thanks for being an Ezytrac landlord and we look forward to your supporting you more any questions you want to send through firstname.lastname@example.org send them through they’ll come through to me and I’m happy to do videos based on your questions so are anything you’ve got whatsoever you know by all means come back to me and I’ll be happy to to answer them alright guys see you later bye